Latest Iran War Commentary
1) I posted this on Substack Notes:
By closing the Strait and causing increases in oil and gas prices, Iran has scored a tactical victory that may force the U.S. to seek an exit strategy well short of regime change. But, seen in a longer range perspective, this is a strategic defeat because it has demonstrated to the entire Gulf and to Pakistan that Iran is an always-deadly threat that can never be allowed to rearm to the point of being able to do this again. It will be surrounded by a containment ring, anchored by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, ever alert for any signs that It is rebuilding its strength. The risk of renewed bombing will be hanging over them.
The oil weapon is powerful, but, once used, its user becomes a threat too big to be ignored.
2) Pakistan is a country with a powerful military that has tried to stay neutral over the years with respect to Iran, but it has a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia that is pulling it to intervene by means of a naval escort force.
3) It is widely believed that Russia is the biggest winner from the war, as it benefits substantially from higher oil prices. But that is a short-sighted view, argues John Aziz. Russia has seen an important strategic partner greatly weakened:
Yet, there’s an intricate web of dependencies that bind Russia and Iran. Iran is a crucial partner in military technology. Particularly in drone manufacturing. Iranian Shahed drones have been a key component of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. This dependency, shall we say, complicates things.
Now, it’s the IRGC that needs these drones. Will they have capacity to continue selling the drones to Moscow? That looks doubtful. A destabilised Iran is likelier to lead to a shortage of critical supplies. This risks hampering Russia’s combat capabilities.
4) Why was Mojtaba Khamenei chosen as the next leader?
And, by the way, where is he? He hasn’t been seen in public for quite a while and was earlier reported to be badly wounded.
You write, “But, seen in a longer range perspective, this is a strategic defeat because it has demonstrated to the entire Gulf and to Pakistan that Iran is an always-deadly threat that can never be allowed to rearm to the point of being able to do this again.”
Really? The U.S. and Israeli governments make war on them and then Iran’s government responds by trying to close the strait. You could conclude, as you do, that the U.S. and Israeli governments should continue to make war on Iran. You could also conclude, as I do, that they shouldn’t make war on Iran and then things like this wouldn’t happen.