Weekend Links 03/22/2025
I suspect that many non-MAGA Trump supporters, meaning those who don’t share the movement’s populist assumptions and regressive illiberal values, are so eager to get their policy preferences implemented that they are acting on the principle that “the ends justify the means.” Whether it be deregulation or immigration or taxes or something else entirely, they are so committed to bringing about policy change that they are willing to overlook — or are in complete denial about — the massive damage Trump is inflicting on the constitutional structure and legal norms that underpin our democratic republic.
They are looking the other way as he ignores and threatens the judiciary, violates individuals’ freedoms of speech and assembly, and accretes excessive executive power. In order to achieve policy goals, they are getting their priorities all wrong. The system provides legitimate mechanisms for effecting policy change, even though they may at times be difficult and slow. No such “ends” can justify the dismantling of liberal democracy itself.
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1) The Democratic Party is in deep trouble, with opinion polls showing that it has declining net favorability among voters in every demographic, including even the young voters it was hoping to rely on in coming years. Progressives seem to think all that's needed to reverse that trend is to "fight" harder and improve communication outreach. Ruy Teixeira argues that the problem is one of program, policy, and values and will not be easily solved.
Many Democrats looking for a new way forward are excited about the point of view presented in Abundance, the new book by Ezra Klein (now a NYT columnist) and Derek Thompson. The "abundance agenda" is pro-growth, pro-investment, especially in housing and infrastructure, and pro-prosperity. Here are two reactions to it. The first, from Josh Barro, cautions that, "The abundance movement is premised on cheap energy, but its advocates support decarbonization policies that would make energy, and the aspirational suburban lifestyle, more expensive."
The second, from Noah Millman, is sympathetic to its goals but wonders whether the U.S. governmental system, with its numerous overlapping powers and veto points, is a favorable political environment within which abundance can flourish. After a very interesting detour through the historical example of Robert Moses, Noah goes on to discuss how the changes being introduced by Trump and Musk might affect the likelihood of success of a future Democratic regime powered by the "abundance agenda."
2) Scott Sumner exposes the historical misstatements and errors of economic theory bedeviling CEA chair Stephen Miran's attempt to formulate a coherent international economic strategy for the Trump administration. He concludes, "Younger readers have no idea how demoralizing it is for an old guy like me to read something like this. Robert Mundell (DL: a renowned international macroeconomist) must be rolling over in his grave. The old Republican supply-siders used to argue for loose fiscal (tax cuts) combined with tight monetary policy. But loose fiscal and monetary policy? When has that ever worked? We’re going to run big budget deficits and the money-printing machine and prevent inflation by adjusting the term structure of our debt? I had thought “operation twist” was discredited in the 1960s. Have we learned nothing in the past 60 years? This is beyond even MMT (DL: Modern Monetary Theory)."
Scott Sumner and Paul Krugmam often disagree on macroeconomic issues, but Paul also completely rejects Miran's scheme, seconded by some economists outside of government like Michael Pettis, for rejiggering the international monetary system. He says that, in our attempts to understand what they're floating, we should avoid "sanewashing" what are, in fact, ideas that violate fundamental, long-understood truths about how the global system of trade and investment works.
Another constant theme in the Trump economic playbook is the idea of "restoring" the U.S. as a manufacturing powerhouse. Fareed Zakaria nicely restates what the vast majority of economists of all stripes have always known: This aspiration is a "mirage," to use his apt term. Production of services is now the leading edge of the global economy and the U.S. exported over $1.1 trillion of services in 2024, with a surplus in that sector of almost $300 billion. The U.S. still has a growing manufacturing output but fast-increasing productivity means very few jobs are created as a result.
3) A 30-day ceasefire won't end the Ukraine war, says Phillips OBrien. It may only, in fact, be a prelude to a new stage, in which Putin turns to internal Ukrainian political maneuvers to establish permanent dominance over the population, what OBrien calls "Lukashenkoing" it (after the Belarussian dictator).
4) The administration is decimating university-based research funding, mostly for ideological reasons. The irony, said Alex Tabarrok back in February, is that the "woke" content they are trying to eliminate has its home mainly in the humanities and social sciences -- especially history and sociology -- where federal funding is not very important. What is suffering the most from the cuts is "hard" science research, where that kind of content is rare, while federal funding is vital for the future of technical progress in the hi-tech and biomedical industries.
And Alex adds now that the enormous benefits we get from the existence of open global trade markets and a non-conflictual relationship with other countries are further demonstrated by China's growing role in providing new pharmaceuticals.
5) James Capretta explains what a new president's first budget is supposed to accomplish. He says, "The first Trump budget of this second term of the president has the potential to be an important and clarifying document as it would emerge in a time of rampant confusion about the fiscal effects of the administration’s plans. Budgets should be grounded in realistic estimates, which means they tend to separate what is real and defensible from what is unserious posturing. At this point, however, the administration has not indicated when it will release its budget, or if it will adhere to the norms that makes these submissions valuable for public debates."
https://www.aei.org/economics/when-will-trump-deliver-his-first-budget/
6) Tyler Watts, writing at Econlog, has a "win-win" proposal for fixing Social Security. He introduces it by pointing out that, "Everyone knows Social Security is broke and broken. According to the latest OASDI Trustees Report, Social Security has been paying out more than its total revenue (payroll taxes and trust fund) since 2021, and the latest projections have the Social Security trust fund depleted by 2033. After that date, it will only pay 79% of scheduled benefits if significant changes aren’t made." His idea, unlike others that require raising the tax cap or extending the retirement age, involves voluntary buyouts from the existing system and the establishment of a new parallel program.
https://www.econlib.org/a-win-win-proposal-to-fix-social-security/
7) Legal residents of the U.S. are being targeted by ICE for deportation because the Trump administration doesn't like the opinions they've expressed. Jacoib Sullum reminds us that First Amendment protections of free speech make no distinction between citizens and legal residents. "Once an alien lawfully enters and resides in this country," Supreme Court Justice Frank Murphy observed in a 1945 concurring opinion, "he becomes invested with the rights guaranteed by the Constitution to all people within our borders," including "the right to free speech and free press."
Adrian Carrasquillo exposes the "bullshit" justifications being used by ICE to justify the rounding-up and deportation of supposed "gang members." It appears they are often mis-identifying pop-culture tattoos with gang insignia.
8) "Why aren't white men going to college?" is the question asked by the pseudonymous philosophy professor "Hilarius Bookbinder" (a fictitious name used by Kierkegaard as the editor for Stages on Life's Way) on his or her substack. After a review of some bad explanations, the preferred answer comes down to the messaging being received by young men.
