Weekly Links 01/04/2025
1) Scott Alexander discusses the history of flu outbreaks, their mechanisms of spread, and the likelihood of a bird flu pandemic in the near future.
and Alex Tabarrok is "stunned" by the inadequacy of our response so far to the risk of an outbreak.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/12/the-cows-in-the-coal-mine.html
2) Jon Murphy explains why he is concerned about Trump's tariff plans, in terms of both economic and political effects.
https://www.econlib.org/concerns-about-tariffs/
Daniel Drezner says that Biden's "embarrassing, logically contradictory" foreign economic policy paved the way for the increased protectionism we are likely to see over the next four years.
3) Bryan Caplan has written an open letter to Elon Musk, telling him that he is "trying to defend two deeply incompatible positions on immigration."
and Harvard economist Greg Mankiw makes the case for an expansion of the H1-B visa program.
https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-case-for-more-h1b-visas.html
4) Structural engineer Brian Potter reviews a biography of Morris Chang, the founder of the world's leading chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which dominates production of the fastest chips.
5) Scott Sumner comments on a recent interview with leading monetary theorist and historian George Selgin, in which George explains the advantages of Nominal GDP Level Targeting (NGDPLT), which, had it been implemented by the Fed, would have obviated the depth of the Great Recession (2008-9) and the excess inflation of 2022-23. Instead of moving in that direction, says Scott, "it seems as though the Fed is planning to return to the policy regime that led to the Great Recession."
https://www.econlib.org/a-policy-for-all-seasons/
6) Republicans in Congress are deeply divided over the issue of the debt ceiling and many are defying Trump, their nominal leader.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/30/debt-limit-dividing-republicans-trump-00195913
Economists and fiscal policy experts at the CATO Institute have submitted recommendations to the proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on various budgetary areas. This is their submission on the looming insolvency of Social Security.
https://www.cato.org/blog/doge-recommendations-social-security
7) Starting from Walter Russell Mead's fourfold classification of "schools" of U.S. foreign policy, Hamiltonian, Jeffersonian, Wilsonian, and Jacksonian, former Deputy Director of Intelligence Ralph DeFalco III anticipates how Trump -- a clear Jacksonian -- will use tariffs, alliances, and negotiations to implement policy toward China in his second term.